Pass Forecast
How accurate is the forecast?
After each JLPT, learners report their official scores. We compare each score with the forecast that learner had before the exam, using only the answers they gave before exam day. Nothing is adjusted after the fact.
Collecting results
We publish accuracy once 30 learners have reported official results with a forecast made before their exam. Took the JLPT? Report your score on your forecast page.
How the forecast works
- Every answer is sorted into the official question type it matches, such as kanji reading, sentence building, or information retrieval.
- Each question type is weighted by how many items it has on the real exam, then grouped into the official scoring sections.
- Recent answers count more. Only the first try at each question counts, because retakes measure memory.
- We simulate thousands of exam days, including test-day variation, and apply the official rules: the overall pass mark and every section minimum.
- Sections you have not practiced get a cautious guess and wide uncertainty.
The forecast is a study estimate, not an official prediction from the JLPT organizers.